The experimentally-derived amounts of five selected flavor compounds, namely hexenal, 2-pentyl furan, (E)-2-heptenal, nonanal, and (E)-2-decenal, all produced during the oxidation of extra virgin olive oil packaged in various storage conditions (glass/PET/PVC bottles; 15/30/40 °C temperature; light or dark conditions) for one year, were used in a mathematical model for calculating the probability that the olive oil would not have reached the end of its shelf life (Psafe) after a certain storage period time. The storage times corresponding to probabilities of 70%, 50% and 30% were also calculated. On the basis of these results, an optimal group of flavor compounds were selected that were highly correlated to the degradation factors (storage conditions), and therefore the Psafe, of the oil. These flavor compounds could then be used as markers to identify the cause of the oxidative degradation (the storage history) of the olive oil.